Shriram Finance Share Analysis | Monthly Breakout & 3–6 Month TargetS

 

Shriram Finance Ltd — Monthly Chart Analysis & 3–6 Month Trade Plan

Ticker: SHRIRAMFIN (NSE) • Latest observed price: ₹748.90

Quick Snapshot

Shriram Finance is showing strong bullish behaviour on the monthly timeframe — a large green candle with MACD bullish crossover and RSI in constructive zone. Price is comfortably above the 21 & 50 SMAs, indicating a durable uptrend.

Technical Observations (Monthly)

• Momentum: MACD bullish crossover; histogram trending up.
• RSI (14): ~65.8 → healthy momentum without extreme overbought.
• Moving Averages: 21 & 50 SMAs acting as dynamic support (50 SMA ≈ ₹509).
• Support zones: ₹625, ₹590, major at ₹510 (50 SMA).
• Resistance zones: ₹820 (near-term), ₹875, ₹940 (prior highs).

Positional Trade Plan (3–6 Months)

Parameter	Level / Guidance
Current Market Price (CMP)	₹748.90 (approx)
Recommended Entry	Hold; add on dips toward ₹700–₹720
Stop Loss	₹590 (monthly close basis)
Primary Target (3 months)	₹820
Secondary Target (4–6 months)	₹875 → ₹940
Time Horizon	3–6 months
Risk : Reward	Variable (example: entry ₹730 → target ₹820 ≈ 12% upside; stop ₹590 ≈ 19% downside — size accordingly)

Use appropriate position sizing — consider risking no more than 1–2% of portfolio on this position. Trail stop if price moves favorably.

Why This Setup Looks Attractive

1. Clear monthly momentum with confirmation from MACD and RSI.
2. Price action shows renewed buying interest and clean support levels below.
3. NBFC lending recovery and improved credit offtake could drive fundamentals positively.

Risks & Monitoring Checklist

• Macro risks: interest rate moves, RBI policy, inflation — NBFCs are rate sensitive.
• Credit quality: monitor gross NPA / collection efficiency updates in quarterly results.
• Liquidity & position sizing: avoid heavy concentration due to stock volatility.
• Any adverse regulatory updates or sector-specific news can cause sharp moves.

Recent Notes

Monthly candle shows strength; traders should watch monthly close and follow-up volume. Keep track of quarterly results and management commentary for confirmation of business momentum.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Perform your own due diligence and consult a licensed advisor for personalised recommendations.