Based on the 1-hour NIFTY Futures chart you shared, this is a classic descending trendline breakout setup with expanding volume near the breakout candle.
What I see
Multi-week descending resistance line from early May highs.
Price has closed above the trendline around 23,650–23,680.
Breakout candle is stronger than the preceding candles.
Volume has increased on the breakout attempt.
Immediate resistance zone lies at 23,800–23,850.
Major swing resistance sits near 24,000–24,100.
Swing Trading Plan for Next Week
Aggressive Entry (Breakout Trader)
Entry: 23,650–23,720
Stop Loss: 23,480
Risk: ~170-220 points
Targets:
T1: 23,850
T2: 24,000
T3: 24,180
Risk-Reward:
T1 ≈ 1:1
T2 ≈ 1:2
T3 ≈ 1:3
Professional Entry (Preferred)
Wait for one of these:
Scenario A: Retest Entry
If price retests the broken trendline:
Buy Zone: 23,560–23,620
SL: 23,430
Targets:
23,850
24,000
24,180
This offers the best risk-reward.
Scenario B: Momentum Confirmation
If market opens strong and breaks resistance:
Buy Above: 23,820 (1-hour close)
SL: 23,620
Targets:
24,000
24,150
24,300
Bearish Invalidation
The breakout fails if:
1-hour close below 23,500
Followed by sustained trade below 23,430
Then downside targets become:
23,250
23,100
22,900
Probability Assessment
Current structure gives:
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Reach 23,850 | 75% |
| Reach 24,000 | 60% |
| Reach 24,200+ | 40% |
| False breakout | 25% |
My preferred trade
Buy only on pullback to 23,580–23,620
SL: 23,430
Target: 24,000 first
Extended target: 24,180–24,300
This is where institutions typically accumulate after a trendline breakout rather than chasing the first breakout candle.
One important note: this analysis is based on a single 1-hour chart screenshot. For a higher-confidence swing target, I would ideally confirm with the daily timeframe, current open interest, and the latest weekly structure. Those can significantly refine the probability and target levels.
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