Shutdown Forecast: 50-50

Sep 27, 2013 9:02am

By MICHAEL FALCONE (@michaelpfalcone)

 

• LOOKING FOR PROGRESS IN ALL THE WRONG PLACES: On “Good Morning America” today ABC’s JONATHAN KARL put the chances of a shutdown — or a catastrophic default — at 50-50. “As that clock ticks down toward shutdown there is no real sign of progress anywhere,” Karl said. “The chances are getting greater with each passing hour. … Leaders in both parties that I’ve spoken to both think that a shutdown is more likely than not. I would put the odds of a shutdown or default at 50-50 … and I may be being optimistic.”

• WHAT HAPPENS NOW? Around 12:30 p.m. today, the Senate will start its votes and wrap up its work on the amended continuing resolution to keep the government funded, ABC’s ARLETTE SAENZ notes. Senate leadership was able to work out a deal on accelerating the time-frame for a vote to Friday instead of Sunday so the House could have more time to work on a plan. The House will vote on their amended continuing resolution on Saturday or Sunday. But the Senate has warned it will only accept a so-called “clean CR,” something the House has not indicated they will agree to.

• OBAMA — GOP IS TRYING TO ‘BLACKMAIL’ ME: President Obama yesterday accused Republicans of political extortion, saying they are trying to “blackmail a president” by threatening to shut down the government or refuse to raise the debt ceiling unless he agrees to gut his signature health care law, ABC’s MARY BRUCE notes. Making a sales pitch for Obamacare before a crowd of students in Maryland, the president said that critics of the Affordable Care Act have become “more irresponsible” as implementation approaches. “Some have threatened a government shutdown if they can’t shut down this law. Others have actually threatened an economic shutdown by refusing to pay America’s bills if they can’t delay the law. That’s not going to happen as long as long as I’m president,” he said to cheers at Prince George’s Community College. “The Affordable Care Act is here to stay.” http://abcn.ws/1baHwSg

• THIS WEEK ON ‘THIS WEEK’: With a looming government shutdown just days away, GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS goes one-on-one with former President Bill Clinton on the budget battles in Washington and his latest work with the Clinton Global Initiative, in a Sunday exclusive. And our powerhouse roundtable tackles all the week’s politics, with ABC News political analyst Matthew Dowd, Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol, New York Times columnist and Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman, and former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm. Check the “This Week” page for full guest listings. Be sure to use #ThisWeek when you tweet about the program. Tune in Sunday: http://abcnews.go.com/thisweek