What I see on this 15-minute chart
Bullish points
Strong impulsive move from around 61.5k → 64.4k.
The larger structure is still making higher highs and higher lows.
Price is approaching a previous demand/support area around 62.8k–63.0k.
Bearish points
The latest move is a clear lower high followed by lower lows.
Price is trading below the blue moving average/VWAP, showing short-term bearish momentum.
Sellers are controlling the tape after rejection from the supply zone near 64.3k.
Would I buy now?
No.
At the current candle (around 63,090), I would not buy.
Reason:
Buying here means buying into a downtrend on the 15-minute timeframe.
There is no bullish confirmation yet.
Risk/reward isn't attractive.
Trade Plan 1 (My preferred trade)
Wait for a bullish confirmation
Entry:
Buy above 63,350–63,450
Only after a strong 15-minute candle closes above that level.
Stop Loss:
62,850
Risk:
≈500–600 points
Targets:
TP1
63,850
TP2
64,200
TP3
64,450
After TP1, move SL to breakeven.
Trade Plan 2 (Best R:R)
If price falls into the blue demand zone shown on your chart.
Buy Zone:
62,300–62,500
Confirmation required:
Bullish engulfing
Strong rejection wick
Break of minor structure
SL:
61,850
Targets:
TP1
63,200
TP2
63,900
TP3
64,300
This setup offers roughly a 1:3 to 1:5 risk-reward, which is much more attractive than buying now.
When would I cancel the buy?
If a 15-minute candle closes below 62,800, I would stay out of longs. That would increase the probability of a move toward 62.2k or even 61.8k.
My probability assessment
Buy now: 35%
Wait for breakout above 63.4k: 70–75%
Buy after pullback into 62.3k–62.5k with confirmation: 80–85%
What I would actually do
No trade right now.
I would place two alerts:
63,400 → Buy breakout if confirmed.
62,450 → Look for a reversal buy.
Professional traders often make their edge by waiting. Based on this chart alone, the higher-probability decision is to let the market prove it's turning before committing capital.
Risk note: No setup has a 90%+ guaranteed win rate. Even very successful professional traders experience losing trades. Keep risk per trade small (commonly 0.5–1% of account equity) and only take trades where the potential reward meaningfully exceeds the risk.
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