Market Structure
Bias: Bullish
Reasons:
- ✅ Price is making higher highs and higher lows.
- ✅ Price is above both moving averages (red fast MA and blue slow MA).
- ✅ Both moving averages are sloping upward.
- ✅ Recent pullbacks have been bought aggressively.
- ✅ No bearish market structure break is visible yet.
Current price is around 60,680.
What I would do
I would NOT short here.
The trend is clearly up, and shorting into an uptrend usually has poor probability.
Instead, I would look for a buy.
Best Buy Scenario (Higher Probability)
Wait for one of these:
Option 1 (Preferred)
- Price pulls back toward 60,500–60,550
- Holds above the fast MA
- Prints a bullish candle
- Enter long
Stop:
- Below 60,300
Targets:
- TP1: 60,900
- TP2: 61,100
- TP3: 61,300
Risk/Reward is much better than buying immediately.
Option 2 (Momentum Entry)
If BTC breaks above
60,950–61,000
with a strong bullish candle and volume,
buy the breakout.
Stop:
- Below breakout candle.
When would I sell?
I would only consider selling if:
- 15m closes below 60,300
- Moving averages start crossing down
- Lower high forms
- Then a lower low confirms bearish structure.
None of that has happened yet.
Probability Assessment
From this chart alone:
- Buy: 70–75% probability
- Sell: 25–30% probability
This is not a 95% confidence setup because the price is already extended after a strong rally. Chasing here carries more risk than buying a pullback.
If I had to press one button right now
Action: 🟢 Buy (with caution)
- Bias: Long
- Better entry: Wait for a pullback toward 60,500–60,550
- Conservative stop: 60,300
- First target: 60,900
- Second target: 61,100–61,300
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