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Thursday, December 25, 2014

Christmas Eve Mass: Pope Urges 'Tenderness', Comforts Christian Refugees In Iraq

Christmas Eve Mass: Pope Urges 'Tenderness', Comforts Christian Refugees In Iraq


VATICAN CITY, Dec 24 (Reuters) - Pope Francis ushered the world's 1.2 billion Roman Catholics into Christmas on Wednesday, urging them to allow God to enter their lives to help combat darkness and corruption.


The 78-year-old Argentine pope led a solemn Christmas Eve Mass for thousands of people in St. Peter's Basilica. It is the second Christmas season for the pope, who was elected last year as the first non-European pontiff in 1,300 years.

He has brought an air of simplicity to the Vatican, refusing many of the trappings of office, and has made plain his determination to reform the Vatican and bring the Church's hierarchy closer to rank-and-file Catholics.

In his homily, Francis, wearing white vestments, said Christmas is a time to remember that God's message of peace "is stronger than darkness and corruption"

"The question put to us simply by the infant's presence is, 'Do I allow God to love me?'" he said. "Do we have the courage to welcome with tenderness the difficulties and problems of those who are near to us ...?"

"How much the world needs tenderness today!" he said.
Hours before the service, the pope made a surprise telephone call to comfort Christian refugees in a camp in Ankawa, Iraq, who were about to celebrate their own Christmas Eve Mass.

"You are like Jesus on Christmas night. There was no room for him either, and he had to flee to Egypt later to save himself," Pope Francis told them in the call arranged by the Italian Catholic television station Sat2000.

The refugees fled Islamic State fighters who have persecuted Shi'ite Muslims, Christians and others in Syria and Iraq who do not share the group's ideologies.

The pope has several times condemned the "barbaric violence" of Islamic State fighters, most recently during his trip to Turkey last month.

On Thursday morning, the pope will deliver his traditional Christmas Day "Urbi et Orbi" (to the city and the world) blessing and message from the central balcony of St. Peter's Square to tens of thousands of people.

The pope has a busy year ahead of him. He has a number of international trips planned, including to Sri Lanka and the Philippines in January. He is also due to visit Africa, the United States and Latin America.

Next month Pope Francis is due to announce the names of a new batch of cardinals, the elite princes of the Church who are eligible to enter a secret conclave to elect a new pope after his death or resignation.

Another key project due to take shape in 2015 is the reform of the Curia, the Vatican's central administration.

In Christmas greetings on Monday to the Vatican's top administrators, Pope Francis delivered a stinging critique of Vatican bureaucracy and outlined 15 illnesses plaguing the Curia, including "spiritual Alzheimer's." 

(Reporting By Philip Pullella; Editing by Toni Reinhold)


Monday, December 22, 2014

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The reason oil could drop as low as $20 per barrel

The reason oil could drop as low as 

$20 per barrel

By Anatole Kaletsky
December 19, 2014
 
An oil pump jack pumps oil in a field near Calgary 
 
How low can it go — and how long will it last? The 50 percent slump in oil prices raises both those questions and while nobody can confidently answer the first question (I will try to in a moment), the second is pretty easy.

Low oil prices will last long enough for one of two events to happen. The first possibility, the one most traders and analysts seem to expect, is that Saudi Arabia will re-establish OPEC’s monopoly power once it achieves the true geopolitical or economic objectives that spurred it to trigger the slump. The second possibility, one I wrote about two weeks ago, is that the global oil market will move toward normal competitive conditions in which prices are set by the marginal production costs, rather than Saudi or OPEC monopoly power. This may seem like a far-fetched scenario, but it is more or less how the oil market worked for two decades from 1986 to 2004.

Whichever outcome finally puts a floor under prices, we can be confident that the process will take a long time to unfold. It is inconceivable that just a few months of falling prices will be enough time for the Saudis to either break the Iranian-Russian axis or reverse the growth of shale oil production in the United States. It is equally inconceivable that the oil market could quickly transition from OPEC domination to a normal competitive one. The many bullish oil investors who still expect prices to rebound quickly to their pre-slump trading range are likely to be disappointed. The best that oil bulls can hope for is that a new, and substantially lower, trading range may be established as the multi-year battles over Middle East dominance and oil-market share play out.

The key question is whether the present price of around $55 will prove closer to the floor or the ceiling of this new range. The history of inflation-adjusted oil prices, deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index, offers some intriguing hints. The 40 years since OPEC first flexed its muscles in 1974 can be divided into three distinct periods. From 1974 to 1985, West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, fluctuated between $48 and $120 in today’s money. From 1986 to 2004, the price ranged from $21 to $48 (apart from two brief aberrations during the 1998 Russian crisis and the 1991 war in Iraq). And from 2005 until this year, oil has again traded in its 1974 to 1985 range of roughly $50 to $120, apart from two very brief spikes in the 2008-09 financial crisis.

What makes these three periods significant is that the trading range of the past 10 years was very similar to the 1974-85 first decade of OPEC domination, but the 19 years from 1986 to 2004 represented a totally different regime. It seems plausible that the difference between these two regimes can be explained by the breakdown of OPEC power in 1985 and the shift from monopolistic to competitive pricing for the next 20 years, followed by the restoration of monopoly pricing in 2005 as OPEC took advantage of surging Chinese demand.

In view of this history, the demarcation line between the monopolistic and competitive regimes at a little below $50 a barrel seems a reasonable estimate of where one boundary of the new long-term trading range might end up. But will $50 be a floor or a ceiling for the oil price in the years ahead?

There are several reasons to expect a new trading range as low as $20 to $50, as in the period from 1986 to 2004. Technological and environmental pressures are reducing long-term oil demand and threatening to turn much of the high-cost oil outside the Middle East into a “stranded asset” similar to the earth’s vast unwanted coal reserves. Additional pressures for low oil prices in the long term include the possible lifting of sanctions on Iran and Russia and the ending of civil wars in Iraq and Libya, which between them would release additional oil reserves bigger than Saudi Arabia’s on to the world markets.

The U.S. shale revolution is perhaps the strongest argument for a return to competitive pricing instead of the OPEC-dominated monopoly regimes of 1974-85 and 2005-14. Although shale oil is relatively costly, production can be turned on and off much more easily – and cheaply – than from conventional oilfields. This means that shale prospectors should now be the “swing producers” in global oil markets instead of the Saudis. In a truly competitive market, the Saudis and other low-cost producers would always be pumping at maximum output, while shale shuts off when demand is weak and ramps up when demand is strong. This competitive logic suggests that marginal costs of U.S. shale oil, generally estimated at $40 to $50, should in the future be a ceiling for global oil prices, not a floor.

On the other hand, there are also good arguments for OPEC-monopoly pricing of $50 to $120 to be re-established once markets test the bottom of this range. OPEC members have a strong interest in preventing a return to competitive pricing and could learn to function again as an effective cartel. Although price-fixing becomes more difficult as U.S. producers increase market share, OPEC could try to impose pricing “discipline” if it can knock out many U.S. shale producers next year. The macro-economic impact of low oil prices on global growth could help this effort by boosting economic activity and energy demand.
So which of these arguments will prove right: The bearish case for a $20 to $50 trading-range based on competitive market pricing? Or the bullish one for $50 to $120 based on resumed OPEC dominance?
Ask me again once the price of oil has fallen to $50 – and stayed there for a year or so.




 

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

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Thursday, December 11, 2014

US FED'S DEBATE shifts from lift-off to long march to normal



Fed's debate shifts from lift-off to long march to normal

WASHINGTON Thu Dec 11, 2014 1:04am EST

A detail from the front of the United States Federal Reserve Board building is shown in Washington October 28, 2014. REUTERS/Gary Cameron 


(Reuters) - For the Federal Reserve, deciding when to raise rates for the first time in nearly a decade has become the easy part.

The harder call, and one increasingly preoccupying U.S. central bankers, is how fast to move after that, navigating stuttering global growth and nervous markets on the Fed's long journey back to pre-crisis policies.

Betting on the "lift-off" of rates from near-zero has become less of a gamble, particularly after an exceptionally strong jobs report last Friday. After months of wavering as the global economy appeared to weaken, investors have pegged that first rate rise to the middle of next year, and seem to have accepted that the U.S. economy can go its own way.


Recent conversations with Fed policymakers, staff and economists point to an internal debate shifting from the first rate move to the pace of increases thereafter. Stagnant inflation has become less of a concern in light of continued improvement in labor markets.

 Barring a serious shock, policymakers have indicated they will press ahead with liftoff in coming months, then move cautiously to ensure they do not stifle the recovery by acting too fast.


"Getting started is probably helpful... Otherwise you keep deferring and keep deferring and then the market just keeps pushing this further out... You want to break the glass," said one former Fed official familiar with the debate. From that point on "if inflation stays low you can be in a little bit less of a rush... You don't have to go every meeting."


That sentiment is taking root at the Fed and narrowing the differences among the 7 governors and 12 regional bank presidents, who only a few months ago appeared broadly split over issues such as the amount of slack in the labor market. Fed officials will update their forecasts after meetings that conclude on Dec. 17, possibly marking a further convergence of their views.


Naturally, some disagreement remains. Inflation hawks feel the Fed should be acting sooner to prevent crisis-era stimulus feeding into asset price bubbles and excessive price increases. Others, most notably Minnesota Fed chief Narayana Kocherlakota, worry the central bank is too complacent about a risk of inflation fading. A financial crash in China or some other shock could also turn the Fed's timetable on its head.


But with an economy less dependent on trade and with strengthened banks, the United States looks more robust than recession-prone Japan and Europe. More jobs, rising wages and stock prices and other positive domestic news, meanwhile, may set the stage for households to play a larger role in the recovery.


"Everything is coming together for pretty solid consumer spending growth," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.


Even the Fed's more cautious members are eager to deliver a modest rise in the benchmark rate, according to interviews with officials, staff and analysts. A zero interest rate leaves policymakers no simple way to react if conditions weaken; it is also increasingly out of step with data that has boosted the Fed's confidence about the economy's momentum.


In fact, central bankers have become so confident that even a clear acceleration in prices is no longer seen as a precondition to liftoff, Fed policymakers and staff have indicated in interviews and public statements.


There is wide recognition that cheaper oil and the strength of the dollar, for example, mean the Fed's preferred inflation measure may remain stuck at around 1.5 percent in coming months. That is considered far below the central bank's 2 percent target given the glacial pace at which U.S. prices and wages are now thought to move.


BEYOND OIL

In a recent series of interviews with Reuters and in public statements, policymakers have said they are trying to look beyond oil's direct impact on inflation to other factors that will ultimately drive prices and wages higher. Cheaper oil is likely to dampen energy sector investment and hiring in the short-run, for example, but over time will boost overall demand, perhaps boost profits and hiring among other firms, and ultimately produce stronger growth. Fed officials are also looking for confirmation of longer term price and wage trends in factors such as capacity utilization, job turnover, the time it takes to fill jobs, and a range of surveys and measures of inflation expectations.


“We may have to disentangle short term influences of energy prices from the underlying trend... But I really do believe we will see the underlying core pace of inflation accelerate,” Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart told reporters last week. Lockhart, a centrist member who will have a vote next year on the Fed's policy committee, said that while a mid-2015 lift-off was not "carved in stone," he saw the data increasingly backing that scenario.


Now the question is where rates will be at the end of 2016 or even farther into the future. The initial hike, probably a small, quarter point move, may have little effect on what companies or consumers pay for credit, the patterns of lending among banks, or cross-border capital flows. But the quicker the Fed moves from there, the faster will be the adjustments and the greater the potential for dislocation.


Indeed if Fed policymakers and the markets are coalescing around liftoff, they remain far apart about what happens next. The most recent projections by Fed officials, provided in September, anticipate a median federal funds rate of 3.75 percent by the end of 2017. However, some futures contracts show investors do not expect the benchmark rate to reach such levels until well into the 2020s.


As Fed chief Janet Yellen and other Fed officials have noted, that gap could reflect a number of things - from divergence in economic forecasts to differing views about how the Fed may respond to economic data. Some analysts have noted, for example, that Fed economic projections have tended to be optimistic; others speculate that Yellen's personal rate projection is probably on the lower end, and weight their predictions to account for her more influential voice.




(Additional reporting by Michael Flaherty and Jonathan Spicer; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)

 

Monday, December 8, 2014

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Wednesday, December 3, 2014

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Tuesday, December 2, 2014

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