O.E.C.D. Forecasts Lower Growth for Euro Zone

By JACK EWING

Published: November 19, 2013, THE NEW YORK TIMES

 

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development revised down its forecast for the euro zone on Tuesday and expressed only subdued optimism for the rest of the world, warning that emerging markets are beginning to falter and that growth worldwide is threatened by an array of risks. 

 

Global growth, forecast at 2.7 percent this year and 3.6 percent next year, is almost half a percentage point less than previously predicted. 

 

In its twice-yearly assessment of the state of the world economy, the O.E.C.D., based in Paris, said the euro zone would grow 1 percent next year after output declined an estimated 0.6 percent this year. Both forecasts were lower than O.E.C.D. estimates issued in May. Euro zone growth will not be strong enough to make a big dent in unemployment, which is more than 12 percent, the O.E.C.D. said. 

The O.E.C.D. warned that growth in emerging markets is slowing, which could also be a drag on Japan and the euro area because of their exports to the developing world. The O.E.C.D. forecast growth of 1.5 percent for Japan in 2014 after growth of 1.8 percent this year, a more optimistic outlook than in May. 

For the United States, the O.E.C.D. forecast an expansion of 2.9 next year after 1.7 this year, a slightly more upbeat forecast. But the O.E.C.D. said growth in China, estimated at 8.2 percent next year after 7.7 percent last year, would be slower than it forecast in May. 

In May, the O.E.C.D. had forecast growth next year of 2.8 percent for the United States, 1.1 percent for the euro area, and 1.4 percent for Japan. For all 34 O.E.C.D. members, a group that includes most of the developed world, the organization predicted growth of 2.3 percent. It said China would grow 8.3 percent next year. 

The O.E.C.D. also warned in May that many developing countries were “innocent bystanders” that had not contributed to the financial crisis but were suffering its effects. 

Members of the O.E.C.D. include the United States, Canada and many of the countries in the euro area. Some developing countries like Mexico are also members, but others like Brazil, China and Russia are considered “key partners” under consideration for membership.